China’s corn output was up 4.1 percent in the 2015-16 marketing year (September 2015 – August 2016) despite a government-led drive to reduce corn acreage, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday [17 January 2017]. During the period, the country produced 22.4 million metric tons of corn and imported 3.2 million tons – a 41.9 percent year-on-year decrease – according to the ministry’s agricultural supply and demand estimates…Full Article: China Daily Jan 2017

Key Points

  • From September 2016 to August 2017, China’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts China’s soybean cultivation area to increase 566,000 hectares to 71.6 million ha. Total soybean output could reach 12.5 million MTs.
  • From September 2015 to August 2016, China consumed approximately 19.4 million MTs of corn, 5.8% increase year-on-year.

ChinaAg Comments

  • In 2016, China’s grain output decreased to 616 million MTs. From 2015 to 2016, China’s grain cultivation declined by 315,000 ha while its overall yield dropped by 30.7 kg per ha (0.03 MT per ha).
  • In October 2016, a Beijing publication stated that the average corn price paid by ethanol companies in Jilin Province was CNY 1,450 (US$217.44) per MT. At the same time, the purchase price paid by ethanol companies in Kaiyuan, Liaoning Province, was CNY 1,570 [~US$233] per MT. The publication also noted that from 2007 to 2014, corn purchase price in Heilongjiang Province increased from CNY 1,380 [~US$181.32] per MT to CNY 2,200 [~US$357.42] per MT, before falling to CNY 2,000 [~US$318.35] per MT in 2015. In general, corn imports from the USA total just CNY 1,500 [~US$221.90] per MT.
  • In April 2016, China’s Ministry of Agriculture announced it would increase soybean production at the expense of corn production. The Ministry of Agriculture also noted that soybean production will be promoted on farmland that has historically grown soybeans (e.g. Heilongjiang Province).
  • In March 2016, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced it would end the country’s corn stockpiling program in 2016. During the same month, China reportedly had approximately 250 million MTs of corn in its state reserves.
  • As of 2015, China’s northeast (e.g. Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin and Inner Mongolia) had approximately 160 million MTs of corn in storage, or roughly 78% of China’s total corn reserves. In addition, during 2015, China produced 621 million MTs of grains, of which rice, wheat, and corn accounted for 92% of output (~572 million MTs). Grain crops were harvested on 113.3 million ha, with some new acreage appearing at the expense of cotton crops.
  • In November 2015, China announced plans to cut its corn production by 3.3 million hectares across 13 provinces/regions by the end of 2020. This decline in area will cut production by approximately 25 million MTs. According the Deputy Director of China’s Crop Production Department (under the auspices of the Ministry of Agriculture), the major corn producing regions of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang will see the largest declines in production area, while Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Guizhou and Yunnan will also be affected somewhat.
  • In September 2015, China decreased its corn purchasing price for state reserves by 10.7%, marking it the first decline since price support measures would introduced in 2008.
  • In 2014, China produced 607 million MTs of grain.

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