China’s hog price is expected to stay at high levels at least until the middle of 2017 due to short supply, providing opportunities for foreign suppliers, analysts said. China’s hog price skyrocketed at the start of 2016, reaching an all-time high of more than 20 yuan [~US$3.00] per kilogram, as listed in a report Rabobank sent to the Global Times on Thursday [7 July 2016]…Full Article: The Global Times July 2016

Key Points

  • Chinese pork prices are expected to peak sometime between July and September 2016 at CNY 22 (~US$3.30) per kg, while pork supply is expected to bottom out from September to November.
  • In early July 2016, Anhui Province lost approximately 53,100 pigs, 2,350 cows, and 7.28 million heads of poultry due to flooding.
  • From January to May 2016, Chinese pork imports totaled 600,000 MTs, a year-on-year increase of 120%.

ChinaAg Comments

  • As of mid-2016, China had released approximately 150,000 MTs of frozen pork from its state reserves to dampen domestic pork prices.
  • In late April 2016, China’s average pork price totaled CNY 26.24 [~US$4.04] per kg. A stark increase from the CNY 17.88 recorded in April 2015.
  • From May 5 to July 4 (2016), Beijing will release 3,050 MTs of frozen pork from its reserves, including 50 MTs that will be sold daily to 121 supermarkets. Additionally, the government will provide subsidies to abattoirs, as well as to vendors (subsidy of up to CNY 9 or US$1.40 per kg sold).
  • In March 2016, Beijing’s Xinfadi wholesale market noted a nearly 60% increase in pork prices versus the previous year.
  • In December 2015, China began releasing frozen pork from state reserves in 12 regions including Beijing, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi.

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