The perils of forecasting the Chinese agricultural market came to the fore earlier this month when the US Department of Agriculture slashed its predictions for Chinese corn imports. Last year, the USDA reckoned China was set to become the largest importer of grain. But mounting evidence of rising inventories and falling demand triggered a rethink and it has dramatically cut its forecasts. Last year’s long-term import forecast of 22m tonnes for 2023/24 has been reduced to just 6.5m…Full Article: BlackSeaGrain Feb 2015

Key Point

  • During China’s 2013/2014 market year its corn reserves grew to 100 million MTs, which is equal to roughly half of China’s annual consumption.
  • Owing to import quotas on corn, importers have increased their purchases of corn substitutes such as sorghum and barley.

ChinaAg Comment

  • From January to September 2014, Guangdong’s Huangpu Port was the top buyer of corn in China, importing 738,142 MTs. This was an increase from 2013 when Huangpu imported 686,027 MTs. During the peak period of Chinese corn imports (i.e. 2012 – 5.2 million MTs total imported), the nearby port of Shenzhen was the largest importer in China (1 million MTs imported in 2012).

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